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BT Fusion is only the beginning of a $74bn trend, says visiongain report
June 21, 2005;
Bluephone from BT has been rolled out. So what?

BT's recently launched Bluephone project, which has been re-christened BT Fusion, is only the start of Fixed/Mobile Convergence (FMC) in the Telecoms industry, says a report by industry analysts visiongain.

Convergence is set to drive fundamental change in both fixed and mobile industries and is gaining significant market traction among operators and vendors worldwide. The market is set to grow massively to a value of $74 billion (€61 billion, Ł40 billion) by 2009, visiongain believes.

After failing to keep pace with the mobile Telecoms industry and faced with slowing (even negative) voice traffic and revenues, fixed-line operators have had to look at an alliance with the faster-growth wireless industry to prevent further substitution and displacement trends.

Mobile operators, meanwhile, regard FMC services as an effective way of increasing the functionality of the mobile handset and maintaining current ARPU levels.

BT Fusion is the most prominent and high profile FMC initiative to date. It represents a major part of BT's convergence strategy, and the company aims to generate Ł1 billion ($1.8 billion, €1.5 billion) a year by 2009 from converged services.

Senior visiongain analyst Goran Nastic said: "We believe the success (or otherwise) of BT Fusion will, to a large degree, determine not just BT's FMC strategy, but will also shape the extent and timeline of the converged landscape on a global basis." Mr Nastic continues, "Ultimately, service providers must deliver a converged solution that provides a compelling value proposition to the consumer to encourage adoption."

The visiongain report, "Convergence, substitution and Project Bluephone", explores BT Fusion amid the wider trends of fixed-to-mobile substitution and fixed/mobile convergence. Bringing a full and seamless converged solution to the market remains unexplored and is faced with significant challenges, including unfamiliar business models, regulatory environments, pricing and marketing and, most importantly, uncertain consumer demand.

Other findings of this report include:

* reliance on mobile telephony is increasing, with mobile voice traffic accounting for almost 50% of total Telecoms traffic in the top 5 European markets;

* while the number of mobile-only households is growing, these will not endanger the traditional home phone due to convenience and cost issues among others;

* fixed-only players need a mobile presence: despite broadband growth, fixed-only operators have inferior revenue growth and poorer margins to integrated players;

* convergence entails many forms, all of which have to be considered when outlining and implementing an appropriate strategy;

* a look at the target market segments of Bluephone and other converged offerings, as well as how to stimulate end-user demand for converged services;

* lessons from previous, unsuccessful convergence initiatives; and

* a detailed analysis of Bluephone and what it means for companies involved with FMC.

Background:

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For information on visiongain, please visit the website: www.visiongain.com

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